This is correct, except for one thing. Passive has already created a bubble. Nobody considers the value they are receiving for the price they are paying when investing in VTI.
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Unlike, for example, when they buy a house. There will likely be some interesting downdrafts opportunities?
If you are years old and not expecting to retire for 40 years this may not be a problem. However, anyone over 50 might be dead or too old to spend the money when the market eventually recovers back to these levels. If a person does not know how to estimate the future expected return of VTI then they should either learn how to do it, or invest in something else that they do know how to value. Kowalski September 12, , am. I was racking up credit card debt and writing bad checks at his age.
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He already sees the pointlessness of silly consumer spending and he and my niece are both savings minded she saves like half the money she earns doing odd jobs around her neighborhood. That Frugal Pharmacist September 12, , am. Though ease is a MAJOR perk for someone like me… there are plenty of people who understand things much better than I do who are choosing to index. And of those, many still dabble in active stock picks. David September 12, , pm. I definitely agree that there will be a swing back towards active investing when it reaches a critical point.
But even then I think for the average Joe we will still be better off ass a passive investor for a couple of reasons;. So on balance I think we will never actually quite reaching the tipping point, people will just think we have and become active. Pedro Delgado September 12, , am. I was using a euro equicy of Betterment and they had index funds from one of the blue chip firms. Synthetic instruments and derivatives.
Could you address this issue too? But from my understand the actual Betterment US does not use them, and their investment teem seems to agree that they are a potentially more risky and b more common in Europe. Peter Rath September 13, , am. This guy is a bit of a hero of mine and has been around and successful for a long time. Bastiat September 12, , am. Shares of such a company are clearly worthless but people value gold for itself just like they value a nice suit.
You may not but most people do. It has nothing to do with future expected cashflows and everything to do with subjective utility. Hi Bastiat, I would agree with you on the portion of gold that people buy because they actually want to own and look at it like a nice suit. It only delivers a profit if you sell it to someone else at a higher price. Harold Dawson September 13, , pm.
Gold tells us that they have failed. The Central Banks do not care about you, and they do not care about protecting the value of your money. Look at gold for the past 15 years. We live in a world of massive asset price inflation.
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The money supply has doubled since Gold has also nearly doubled. House prices have more than doubled in many areas. The newly created money has also found its way into the stock market, helping create an absolutely epic run. Gold shines a light on the failure of Central Banks, and the failure of the government to maintain anything resembling budgetary restraint. And why not? Indeed, the fiat system has helped make them very rich. Part of this wealth has been acquired via the constant debasement of the money supply.
It certainly contributes to wealth inequality by making the rich even richer. And they are falling further and further behind. Gold, a simple inanimate object, can be trusted. That is also the primary reason that Bitcoin exists. It is yet another shining light, exposing the long-standing failures of fiat money. And like gold, it is hated by those in power for doing so. Money Mustache September 18, , pm. It has enabled me to start with nothing and yet earn millions of dollars and easily take care of all the material needs of me and everyone I care about — AND give hundreds of thousands of it away to help thousands of other people get medical care and education and other genuinely useful stuff.
And this will continue for the rest of my life — all without playing around with a single bar of gold or spoonful of silver. YES — the US financial system is messy and like anything run by humans, it is unpredictable and imperfect. But it is still by any objective measurement a remarkable success — a spectacular medium for enabling human productivity and trade. If we focus on electing more honest politicians, we will get even better results with all of the services we depend on our government to provide.
Harold Dawson September 18, , pm. You are, quite frankly, far from the average. You would be successful in virtually any capitalist society. Realize that the typical American the median wage earner has a bit different story to tell. I say this as someone who is also doing just fine, and planning to FIRE in my late 30s, but I see the current system for what it is.
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My family has actually done extremely well due to massive inflation of the last 20 years. In reality, the dramatic decline in dollar purchasing power is responsible for a huge amount of these wealth gains. In capitalism, we reject central planning by the elite, oh, except for this one case? Free markets work, but you have to stand back and let them. Your own productivity, hard work, technological ability, frugal nature, and indeed investment prowess has enabled your success. You seem to conflate Central Banks and fiat money with any modern advancements of society.
I assure you they are not mutually exclusive. Human nature never changes, no matter which way you vote. This lesson was important enough to be written into the US Constitution. I expect that we will be reminded. Abu Iskander September 19, , am. Humans have been nothing but great for us for years!
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Life is great and this will continue for the rest of our life! You can see the cracks in the foundation just looking at all the negative yielding bonds which are complete nonsense, but there is 14 trillions worth of it. Running an economy on negative yielding debt is not sustainable.
And we will probably have to figure out how to live within an economy with very limited growth. Not that I think gold would help with that…. Sean September 25, , pm. If you include dividends it appears to paint a very different picture. Just consider the dividends from the stocks, and gold barely loses in the 15 year timeframe as well. The rest is just government currency, which continues to loose its value daily.